Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the announcement of a new 28-article proposal for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Peace Talks and Military Action
The succession of contrasting events captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are waged: positive announcements are released from different nations. Immense energy is devoted on containing particular approaches. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "resolution".
Nighttime Reality
As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from enemy soil, a ability afforded by timely intelligence. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to engage hostile cruise missiles streaked across the sky – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.
Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: several firings targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably delivered by Western nations. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: perhaps the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and another blackout.
Ongoing Risks
Soon after, a heavy machine gun fired at a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its destination.
Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: seven people killed, damage and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a need that European nations are clearly incapable to substitute in the near term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The comprehensive proposal from Washington sparked intense emotion, discussion and serious worry – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.
Every new proposal from American administration unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, certainly, persist.
Political Considerations
It is convenient to criticize specific actors of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington functions according to a principle familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House presumes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to relinquish the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from thinking that the current condition will not change more in its advantage in the coming year.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Moscow is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the result.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding people and territory but preventing a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its benefit.
Current Realities
Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: personal goals to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not move to homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.
These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.
Assessment and Future
It took a just a single week to kill the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.
While new initiatives based on previous concepts are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, mainly require ongoing international assistance.
