A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that split the country and caused turmoil, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or advocates want to engage even with the basics. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author supports unity or the current situation. Each composes two articles that aim for neutrality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and social data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments encompass national emblems, levies, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they prefer unity but refuse increased taxation or implementing a new flag to reflect unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his era is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified arguments, he commented. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will eventually be defeated but all factions has got important lessons to gain from the opposing positions."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
